Monetary policy analysis in models without money (commentary)

Monetary policy

A Phillips curve with an Ss foundation

We develop an analytically tractable Phillips curve based on state-dependent pricing. We differ from the existing literature by considering a local approximation around a zero inflation steady state and introducing idiosyncratic shocks. The resulting Phillips curve is a simple variation of the conventional time-dependent Calvo formulation but with some important differences. First, the model is able to match the micro evidence on both the magnitude and timing of price adjustments. Second, holding constant the frequency of price adjustment, our state-dependent model exhibits greater flexibility in the aggregate price level than does the time-dependent model. On the other hand, with real rigidities present, our state-dependent pricing framework can exhibit considerable nominal stickiness, of the same order of magnitude suggested by a conventional time-dependent model.Phillips curve

Wealth Accumulation and the Propensity to Plan

Why do similar households end up with very different levels of wealth? We show that differences in the attitudes and skills with which they approach financial planning are a significant factor. We use new and unique survey data to assess these differences and to measure each household's 'propensity to plan.' We show that those with a higher such propensity spend more time developing financial plans, and that this shift in planning effort is associated with increased wealth. The propensity to plan is uncorrelated with survey measures of the discount factor and the bequest motive, raising a question as to why it is associated with wealth accumulation. Part of the answer lies in the very strong relationship we uncover between the propensity to plan and how carefully households monitor their spending. It appears that this detailed monitoring activity helps households to save more and to accumulate more wealth.

Mass Layoffs and Unemployment

Mass layoffs give rise to groups of unemployed workers who possess similar characteristics and therefore may learn from one another's experience searching for a new job. Two factors lead them to be too selective in the job offers that they accept. The first is an information externality: searchers fail to take into account the value of their experience to others. The second is an incentive to free ride: each worker would like others to experiment and reveal information concerning productive jobs. Together these forces imply that in equilibrium the natural rate of unemployment is too high.

The social discount rate

In welfare theory it is standard to pick the consumption stream that maximizes the welfare of the representative agent. We argue against this position, and show that a benevolent social planner will generally place a greater weight on future consumption than does the representative agent.Welfare

The Economics of Adjustment

In this paper we argue that many topics in macroeconomics can be viewed as part of the broader theory of the economics of adjustment. We argue that existing approaches to the economics of adjustment take a very narrow view of the role of information. We outline an approach to this topic that stresses the role of learning and information externalities, and discussed through examples how these concerns alter the qualitative nature of the adjustment process. In particular, there appears to be a general bias towards the underprovision of information in a variety of settings which leads to inefficient adjustment.

The Absent-Minded Consumer

We present evidence that many households have only a vague notion of what they are spending on various consumption items. We then develop a life-cycle model that captures this absent-mindedness'. The model generates precautionary spending, whereby absent-minded agents tend to consume more than attentive ones. The model also predicts fluctuations over time in the level of attention, and thereby sheds new light on the sharp reduction in consumption both at retirement, and in cyclical downturns. Finally, we find patterns of attention in the data that are consistent with those predicted by the model.

Retirement Consumption: Insights from a Survey

Prior research has established that consumption falls significantly at retirement. What is not known is the extent to which this fall is anticipated during the working years. Do working households expect such a large fall in consumption upon retirement, or are they taken by surprise? Using data from a new survey, we show that many working households do expect a considerable fall in consumption when they retire. In fact, those who are already retired report significantly smaller falls in consumption than are expected by those who are still working. We show that participation in the stock market plays a dominant role in explaining the gap between expectations and outcomes, indicating that much of the gap is a result of unexpected stock market appreciation. The survey produces new insights into the high level of uncertainty in the period leading up to retirement, and the surprises that may lie in store when households actually retire.

Measuring Self-Control

How significant are individual differences in self-control? Do these differences impact wealth accumulation? From where do they derive? Our survey-based measure of self-control provides insights into all three questions: 1.There are individual differences in self-control not only of a quantitative but also of a qualitative nature. In our sample, standard self-control problems of over-consumption are no more prevalent than are problems of under-consumption. 2.Standard self-control problems do impede wealth accumulation, particularly in liquid form. Problems of under-consumption have the opposite effects. 3.Self-control is linked to conscientiousness' much studied by psychologists. There is a related link with financial planning.